The Orange Democratic Movement is standing at a moment it long hoped would never come. With Raila Odinga gone, the party he built over two decades is wrestling with a question that hangs over its headquarters, its grassroots, and its senior ranks: what now, and who next?

ODM’s story began during the 2005 constitutional referendum, when a loose coalition of politicians opposing the proposed draft united under the orange symbol. What started as a protest movement quickly transformed into a national force. The momentum of the referendum shaped the party that would soon dominate political conversations across the country.

A Movement Born in Crisis

In its early years, ODM gathered a formidable cast—leaders who would later be known as the “Pentagon.” Raila Odinga stood at its centre, joined by William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi, Najib Balala and Joe Nyagah. Their presence gave the party both energy and reach, setting the tone for the 2007 general election.

That election, now remembered for the violence that followed, also ushered in Kenya’s first major power-sharing deal. Raila became Prime Minister, and ODM emerged as a central player in the push for reforms that later shaped the 2010 Constitution.

From CORD to NASA and finally Azimio la Umoja, ODM turned coalition-building into a political art, at times holding government to account and at others positioning itself as a partner in national dialogue.

Raila’s Long Shadow

To speak of ODM without mentioning Raila Odinga is nearly impossible. His leadership defined its identity. His calls for democratic reform, his willingness to confront successive governments, and his appeal across ethnic and regional lines made the party more than a political vehicle—it became a movement.

Yet his towering presence also left an inevitable question: how would ODM evolve without him?

That question became urgent after his death in October 2025. The grief was national, but inside ODM it brought something else too—uncertainty, anxiety, and renewed division.

An Unsteady Transition

The party had just marked its 20th anniversary, an event filled with celebration but threaded with unease. Beneath the speeches and songs was a debate that had been simmering quietly: should ODM continue cooperating with President William Ruto’s administration, or reclaim its role as a firm opposition?

Two camps have since emerged.

On one side is a faction led by National Chairperson Gladys Wanga and ODM’s new Party Leader, Dr. Oburu Oginga. They argue that political partnership is not betrayal, but strategy. Kenya’s shifting political climate, they say, demands coalition politics—not a retreat to opposition benches. Some within this group have even hinted at supporting President Ruto’s 2027 bid, insisting that ODM was founded to win power, not simply criticise it.

Their rivals tell a different story.

Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo insist that ODM risks losing its soul if it drifts any closer to government. For them, Raila’s legacy is anchored in defiance, social democratic ideals, and an unwavering stance on governance. To abandon that, they argue, would be to abandon the millions who supported ODM for precisely those values.

“We must remain a watchdog,” one senior official close to the reformist wing told reporters recently. “This party was built on accountability. We cannot rewrite our own history.”

A Party Searching for Itself

The ideological split is not merely theoretical. It is shaping party meetings, influencing grassroots conversations and colouring the strategies being drafted ahead of 2027. Younger politicians see an opening. Veteran leaders feel the weight of history. Ordinary members are left wondering whether ODM is entering its next phase—or its slow unravelling.

What remains clear is that ODM is at a crossroads unlike any in its history. Without Raila, the party must confront something it never urgently prepared for: reinvention.

The coming months will test its unity, its identity, and its ability to speak for a country that still sees it as a major political force. Whether ODM will rise, fracture, or redefine itself depends not only on its leaders, but on how it chooses to interpret the legacy of the man who shaped it.