Kenya’s once-thriving textile exports to the United States are under fresh threat. A revived 10 per cent universal tariff, introduced in April 2025, could erode gains made under years of duty-free access.

On 2 April 2025, US President Donald Trump declared what he called “Liberation Day”. He signed an executive order to impose a sweeping 10 per cent tariff on almost all imports to the US, effective from 5 April. Higher, country-specific tariffs were to follow on 9 April—but paused shortly afterwards amid global backlash. Additionally, a US court later challenged the legality of the tariffs—but they remain in force as of today.

Kenya’s textiles, once exempt under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), now face new hurdles. AGOA, a landmark trade scheme since 2000, offers duty-free access to the US for many African exports—but it is set to expire in September 2025, and its renewal seems unlikely amid Trump’s protectionist push.

Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui sees a glimmer of hope. Kenya’s 10 per cent tariff is far lower than those assigned to others—46 per cent for Vietnam, 44 per cent for Sri Lanka, 37 per cent for Bangladesh. In that light, Kenya could emerge as an alternative supply hub, he said.

Yet optimism is tempered by realism. Kenyan manufacturers already shoulder costs around 20 per cent higher than Asian competitors, due to expensive power, heavy taxes and infrastructure woes. “A temporary tariff disparity does not create real competitiveness,” warns Pankaj Bedi of United Aryan Ltd, a major garment exporter.

The Kenya Association of Manufacturers echoes the concern. They warn that added costs on apparel, coffee, tea and other goods could shrink margins and sour contracts built on AGOA’s zero-duty terms.

The Central Bank of Kenya estimates a potential loss of up to USD 100 million in export revenue—around 13 per cent of Kenya’s trade earnings from the US. That threatens jobs and factories in export processing zones.

Kenya is not alone in this bind. Across COMESA and AGOA member states, nations like Lesotho, Madagascar and South Africa face steep tariffs or uncertainty. Lesotho, for example, briefly prepared for 50 per cent duties before a 90-day suspension—yet job losses and factory closures loom.

COMESA is weighing coordinated responses. Member states hope to negotiate collectively with Washington to soften the blow.

“We’ve built our factories on stable trade rules,” says an EPZ manager in Nairobi, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Now, every shipment carries new risk. We may not see this coming back.” Industry voices warn that without AGOA renewal or a new deal, many jobs and livelihoods hang in the balance.

Kenyan exporters are lobbying hard. They urge the government to push for AGOA’s extension or to negotiate a bilateral deal. The aim: preserve a semblance of predictability in an increasingly unpredictable world.

What’s Next?

• AGOA’s fate: If Congress approves an extension before its September expiry, exporters may gain some breathing space.

• Trade talks: Kenya is among over 50 countries that have approached the US. Any deal could tilt the scales back in Nairobi’s favour.Reuters

• Domestic reform: Cutting energy and tax costs would boost long-term competitiveness.

• Regional unity: A COMESA front may bring better negotiating power.

Conclusion:
Kenya enters a delicate chapter. The return of the 10 per cent “liberation” tariff marks a shift away from decades of predictable duty-free trade. Kenya may hold a comparative edge—temporarily. But without fresh agreements, cost reforms and regional strength, its textile sector, and the workers it sustains, could be counting losses rather than gains.