The passing of Pope Francis on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025, has set the Catholic Church on a path toward selecting its next spiritual leader. As preparations begin for the papal conclave, speculation is mounting around who will become the 267th pope—and for the first time in centuries, an African cardinal is seen as a leading candidate.
The conclave, composed of cardinals under the age of 80, will be convened 15 to 20 days after the Pope’s death. This period allows for funeral rites and the traditional nine-day mourning period known as the novemdiales, as well as time for voting cardinals to gather in Vatican City.
The election process will unfold in secrecy behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, where cardinals will vote via secret ballot. A candidate must receive a two-thirds majority to be elected. If no one meets that threshold, voting continues until a consensus is reached.
As the Church looks toward its future, Vatican analysts have identified five frontrunners—each bringing distinct experience, vision, and regional representation. Among them is Ghana’s Cardinal Peter Turkson, a strong contender with a global following.
Top Five Contenders to Succeed Pope Francis
1. Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana) – Odds: 5:1
A respected figure in Catholic social justice efforts, Turkson is a former head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development. At age 76, he’s known for championing causes like climate action, economic equity, and poverty alleviation.
If elected, he would be the first African pope in modern history and the first Black pope since Pope Gelasius I (492–496 AD). His election would symbolize a powerful shift toward global inclusivity in the Church.
2. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – Odds: 3:1
Often referred to as the "Asian Pope Francis," Tagle, 67, is a favorite among progressives. He has been a strong advocate for inclusion, evangelization, and pastoral outreach, and was part of Pope Francis’ inner circle.
His election would reflect the Church’s demographic growth in Asia and signal a continuation of Pope Francis’ emphasis on compassion, mercy, and reform.
3. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy) – Odds: 4:1
The Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is known for his diplomatic expertise, especially in complex negotiations with China and the Middle East. At 70, he combines theological moderation with significant bureaucratic experience.
Seen as a stabilizing figure, he may appeal to cardinals seeking continuity without radical change.
4. Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary) – Odds: 6:1
A distinguished canon law scholar and a strong voice for traditional Catholic doctrine, Erdő, 72, represents the more conservative faction within the Church.
If elected, he could signal a return to the theologically firm leadership style of earlier popes like John Paul II and Benedict XVI, contrasting with Francis’ progressive legacy.
5. Cardinal Angelo Scola (Italy) – Odds: 8:1
At 82, Scola is the oldest candidate among the frontrunners and was a leading contender during the 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis. A former Archbishop of Milan, he is deeply rooted in Catholic theology and supports a more centralized Church structure.
Though his age may be a limiting factor, his experience and strong doctrinal views could appeal to cardinals favoring a shift in tone from Pope Francis.
A Historic Crossroads
With a billion Catholics watching, the upcoming conclave holds enormous spiritual and symbolic weight. The Church stands at a crossroads—between continuity and change, tradition and reform, regional balance and global leadership.
Whether the next pope comes from Africa, Asia, or Europe, the decision will shape the direction of the Catholic Church for decades to come.