Kenya is heading into a long stretch of hot and dry weather, with the Kenya Meteorological Department warning that conditions will intensify from December through February 2026.

The short rains are expected to wind down earlier than usual, ending between the first and fourth weeks of December. While some regions may still receive showers, the overall outlook is clear: the heat is building.

Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki said the coming months will feel noticeably hotter across the country. “Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average over the whole country,” he said. He noted that Kenyans should expect “prolonged periods of heat” with higher daytime and nighttime temperatures.

According to the department, two major climate patterns are shaping the forecast: La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

La Niña, marked by cooler-than-normal sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, often brings drier conditions to East Africa. The negative IOD—which involves cooler water on the western side of the Indian Ocean—also limits moisture reaching the region. Although the IOD has been weakening in recent weeks, its impact is still being felt.
“For the week ending 23 November, the IOD index was −0.60 °C,” Kenya Met said, adding that models point to a return to neutral conditions in December.

Advice to Farmers and Residents

Farmers are being urged to manage water carefully, store enough feed, and take steps such as mulching to reduce evaporation. The department stressed the need for communities in arid and semi-arid lands to prepare for possible water shortages by conserving water and monitoring storage facilities closely.

Areas likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall—such as Kisii, Kisumu, Nandi, Kakamega, Narok, Mt Elgon and surrounding towns—are being advised to remain alert. Residents have been warned against walking or driving through flooded areas, as conditions may turn dangerous quickly.

Public Health Concerns

The Met Department has also warned of increased health risks linked to the heat. Kenyans are being encouraged to watch for signs of heat stress and stay alert to the potential rise in vector-borne diseases.

“Occasional rainfall may cause slippery roads… increasing the risk of accidents,” the department added, noting that sudden, localised floods could disrupt transport during peak traffic hours.

As the country braces for the coming months, the message from experts is clear: prepare early, conserve water, and stay informed.