Kenya Needs Nearly 5 Million Tonnes of Imported Grain — What Could Happen to Unga and Bread Prices? - Livenow Breaking news, Kenyan News, World News. Videos

Kenya is heading towards an unusually large grain import requirement after drought damaged crops in its main food-producing regions. The bigger question for households is whether enough maize and wheat can be secured before shortages translate into higher prices for unga, bread and animal products.

The latest assessment by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) has sharply reversed earlier expectations for Kenya's 2026 harvest.

After severe dry weather in June and July, USDA-FAS cut its forecast for Kenya's 2026/27 maize production by 51% to just 2.2 million tonnes. It now expects the country to require a record 2.3 million tonnes of maize imports.

Wheat production has also been cut to just 130,000 tonnes, leaving Kenya requiring about 2.6 million tonnes of wheat imports.

Together, that means Kenya could require close to five million tonnes of imported maize and wheat during the marketing year.

Why the situation changed so quickly

In March, USDA-FAS had expected maize production to recover to 4.5 million tonnes, assuming normal rainfall.

That forecast has now been dramatically revised.

Rainfall during June and July was among the lowest recorded in decades in parts of western Kenya, according to USDA-FAS. Crop damage has been concentrated in major producing areas including Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Nakuru.

In some areas, close to half the planted crop was lost, while surviving fields could suffer yield reductions of up to 35%.

The problem is already reaching consumers.

The average price of loose maize climbed to KSh71.24 per kilogramme in July, its highest level in about 20 months.

Where will Kenya find the maize?

This could become the more difficult question.

Kenya traditionally buys maize from neighbouring Uganda and Tanzania when domestic supplies are insufficient.

But USDA says eastern Uganda has also suffered poor weather, while Tanzania's exportable surplus is expected to tighten to around 800,000 tonnes.

Zambia is in a stronger position after a bumper harvest, with an estimated exportable maize surplus of about 1.47 million tonnes. But USDA warns that Zambia could restrict exports if concerns over the next growing season intensify.

Kenyan demand is already having regional consequences. Ugandan traders say purchases by Kenyan millers are contributing to higher maize and animal-feed prices there.

What does this mean for unga?

Imports could prevent an outright shortage, but they do not guarantee cheap food.

The eventual price depends on the international cost of grain, transport, the shilling exchange rate, import taxes and how quickly supplies reach millers.

Kenya's food import bill was already rising before the full impact of the failed harvest emerged. Food and beverage imports reached KSh169 billion in the first half of 2026, up 20.6% from a year earlier.

Wheat dependence also exposes bread, chapati and other flour products to international prices.

And maize shortages extend beyond ugali. Animal-feed manufacturers compete for grain, meaning higher maize costs can eventually affect the price of eggs, chicken, milk and other foods.

For Kenyan households, therefore, the important story is no longer simply that the rains failed.

It is whether Kenya can find almost five million tonnes of grain abroad — and at what price.